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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp  ·  closed at 2.30 (43.5%)

Small Play Dog play
Baltimore Orioles
+138 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 42%
Edge +6.4 pts

Solid 6.4% edge at FanDuel (2.38).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.7%
+ Season record + form
46.7% +1.0pp
Calibration offset
47.6% +0.9pp
Platt rescale
39.2% -8.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.5% -0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.3% +3.8pp

Model performance on Baltimore Orioles picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
20
W - L
9 - 10
Win rate
47%
Avg CLV
+3.3pt
ROI
-8.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.