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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 46% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +11.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +14.0pp  ·  closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Top Pick Dog play
Athletics
+115 on FanDuel
Model 46%
Market 47%
Edge +11.8 pts

Model gives 58.3% vs FanDuel's implied 46.5%. No team-rating data — verify before sizing up.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability
46.3%

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
53
W - L
18 - 35
Win rate
34%
Avg CLV
+5.8pt
ROI
-13.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.