Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 44% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.5pp · closed at 2.30 (43.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
44%
Market
44%
Edge
+5.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
54.3%
—
+ Season record + form
53.4%
-0.9pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
52.8%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
51.9%
-0.9pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-9.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.4%
-2.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
+4.4pp
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