Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · August 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 51% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +3.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
51%
Market
51%
Edge
+3.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
59.2%
—
Calibration offset
56.1%
-3.1pp
Platt rescale
47.0%
-9.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.9%
-2.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.0%
+6.1pp
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