San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
45%
Market
45%
Edge
+5.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.7%
—
+ Season record + form
55.1%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
53.1%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.4%
-9.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.9%
-2.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.4%
+4.5pp
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