Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · August 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 47% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.8pp · closed at 2.19 (45.7%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
47%
Market
46%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.0%
—
+ Season record + form
53.3%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.3pp
Platt rescale
42.5%
-9.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.1%
-2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.5%
+6.4pp
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