Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · August 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.2pp · closed at 2.42 (41.3%)
Detroit Tigers
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.4%
—
+ Season record + form
46.4%
+1.0pp
Calibration offset
47.4%
+1.0pp
Platt rescale
38.9%
-8.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.5%
-2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.2%
+5.7pp
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