Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds Recap

MLB · August 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Athletics LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 39% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.54 (39.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Athletics

Model 39%

Market 38%

Edge +4.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

44.1% —

+ Season record + form

44.7% +0.6pp

Calibration offset

46.2% +1.5pp

Platt rescale

37.1% -9.1pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

34.9% -2.2pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

38.9% +4.0pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

12 - 14

Win rate

46%

Avg CLV

+4.4pt

ROI

+16.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.