Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · August 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.0pp · closed at 2.01 (49.8%)

Small Play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 50%

Market 52%

Edge +7.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

50.1% —

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