San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · August 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 39% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.6pp · closed at 2.71 (36.9%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
39%
Market
38%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.6%
—
Calibration offset
44.2%
+2.6pp
Platt rescale
36.1%
-8.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.7%
-1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.7%
+4.0pp
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