San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · August 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -3.4pp · closed at 1.84 (54.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Arizona Diamondbacks

Model 47%

Market 49%

Edge +2.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

55.7% —

+ Season record + form

55.1% -0.6pp

Calibration offset

53.2% -1.9pp

Platt rescale

43.5% -9.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

40.9% -2.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.2% +6.3pp

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