Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · August 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 48% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.7pp · closed at 2.08 (48.1%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
48%
Market
49%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.0%
—
+ Season record + form
53.3%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.3pp
Platt rescale
42.6%
-9.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.3%
+5.7pp
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