Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · August 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.4pp · closed at 2.30 (43.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
46%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.7%
—
+ Season record + form
49.2%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
40.0%
-9.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.4%
+6.4pp
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