Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · August 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.8pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.3%
—
+ Season record + form
46.1%
+0.8pp
Calibration offset
47.2%
+1.1pp
Platt rescale
38.9%
-8.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.0%
-1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.1%
+5.1pp
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