St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · August 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 40% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +12.1pp · closed at 2.82 (35.5%)

Pass Dog play

St. Louis Cardinals

Model 40%

Market 40%

Edge +7.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

43.7% —

+ Season record + form

44.2% +0.5pp

Calibration offset

45.9% +1.7pp

Platt rescale

37.5% -8.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.1% +0.6pp

Final model probability

40.2% +2.1pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

6 - 7

Win rate

46%

Avg CLV

+5.0pt

ROI

+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.