San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 49% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.2pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
49%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.7%
—
+ Season record + form
55.1%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
53.3%
-1.8pp
Platt rescale
43.5%
-9.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.3%
-2.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.5%
+7.2pp
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