Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Recap

MLB · August 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 56% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 1.81 (55.2%)

Small Play

Kansas City Royals

Model 56%

Market 57%

Edge +2.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

55.6% —

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