Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · August 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 40% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.5pp · closed at 2.30 (43.5%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
40%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.6%
—
Calibration offset
44.3%
+2.7pp
Platt rescale
36.6%
-7.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.2%
+3.6pp
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