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St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — St. Louis Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp  ·  closed at 2.18 (45.9%)

Small Play Dog play
St. Louis Cardinals
Model 47%
Market 48%
Edge +4.7 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.6% —
+ Season record + form
51.6% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
41.6% -10.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.8% +1.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.4% +4.6pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
6 - 7
Win rate
46%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.