Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 44% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
44%
Market
44%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.3%
—
+ Season record + form
47.4%
+1.1pp
Calibration offset
48.1%
+0.7pp
Platt rescale
39.1%
-9.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
+4.7pp
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