Lakeshore Edge Sign in

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 34% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp  ·  closed at 3.04 (32.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+198 on FanDuel
Model 34%
Market 34%
Edge +6.2 pts

Solid 6.2% edge at FanDuel (2.98). Elo agrees (-92 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
40.3%
+ Season record + form
36.2% -4.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
35.5% -0.7pp
Calibration offset
40.3% +4.8pp
Platt rescale
33.4% -6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
32.7% -0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.8% +1.1pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
26
W - L
10 - 16
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+3.9pt
ROI
-17.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.