Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 34% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 3.04 (32.9%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
34%
Market
34%
Edge
+6.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
40.3%
—
+ Season record + form
36.2%
-4.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
35.5%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
40.3%
+4.8pp
Platt rescale
33.4%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
32.7%
-0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.8%
+1.1pp
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