Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Boston Red Sox WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 38% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.9pp · closed at 2.60 (38.5%)

Small Play Dog play

Boston Red Sox

Model 38%

Market 38%

Edge +4.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

40.1% —

+ Season record + form

39.6% -0.6pp

Calibration offset

42.9% +3.3pp

Platt rescale

35.7% -7.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

34.8% -0.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

37.6% +2.8pp

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