Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians Recap
MLB · August 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.8pp · closed at 2.66 (37.6%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
39%
Market
39%
Edge
+6.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.8%
—
+ Season record + form
48.1%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.3pp
Platt rescale
39.5%
-8.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.6%
-3.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.4%
+3.7pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.