San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · July 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.4pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play

San Francisco Giants

Model 37%

Market 38%

Edge +4.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

42.4% —

Calibration offset

45.0% +2.6pp

Platt rescale

36.6% -8.4pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

34.9% -1.7pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

37.3% +2.4pp

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