Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · August 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.29 (43.7%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.1%
—
+ Season record + form
48.0%
-2.1pp
Calibration offset
48.5%
+0.5pp
Platt rescale
40.0%
-8.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.0%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.3%
+5.3pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.