Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · August 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +7.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.6pp · closed at 2.47 (40.5%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+7.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.3%
—
+ Season record + form
47.4%
+1.1pp
Calibration offset
48.0%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
39.0%
-9.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.3%
-0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.2%
+2.9pp
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