Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · August 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +5.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.9pp · closed at 2.41 (41.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+5.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.1%
—
+ Season record + form
44.7%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
46.3%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
37.6%
-8.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.5%
-1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.7%
+4.2pp
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