Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians Recap
MLB · August 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 40% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp · closed at 2.57 (38.9%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
40%
Market
40%
Edge
+5.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.8%
—
+ Season record + form
48.1%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.3pp
Platt rescale
39.4%
-9.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.5%
-3.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.9%
+4.4pp
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