San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · July 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.9pp · closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Small Play Dog play

San Diego Padres

Model 37%

Market 38%

Edge +4.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

37.4% —

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