Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · July 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 48% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.10 (47.6%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
48%
Market
49%
Edge
+3.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.9%
—
+ Season record + form
52.0%
+2.1pp
Calibration offset
51.2%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
41.7%
-9.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.3%
+6.6pp
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