Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · July 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.9pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Minnesota Twins

Model 39%

Market 40%

Edge +4.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

38.8% —

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