Boston Red Sox @ Athletics Recap
MLB · July 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Athletics LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.7pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Solid 5.1% edge at FanDuel (2.30). Elo agrees (-37 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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