Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · July 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Seattle Mariners WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.2pp · closed at 3.01 (33.2%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
37%
Market
38%
Edge
+4.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.0%
—
+ Season record + form
38.2%
-0.8pp
Calibration offset
42.0%
+3.8pp
Platt rescale
34.2%
-7.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.7%
+0.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
37.2%
+2.5pp
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