Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · July 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 36% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.6pp · closed at 2.79 (35.8%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
36%
Market
37%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
42.1%
—
Calibration offset
44.5%
+2.4pp
Platt rescale
36.9%
-7.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.0%
-2.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.2%
+2.2pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.