Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · July 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.7pp · closed at 2.21 (45.2%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+3.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.7%
—
+ Season record + form
50.5%
+1.8pp
Platt rescale
41.0%
-9.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.5%
+5.5pp
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