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Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · July 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Milwaukee Brewers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 56% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.5pp  ·  closed at 1.75 (57.1%)

Small Play
Milwaukee Brewers
-135 on FanDuel
Model 56%
Market 57%
Edge +2.2 pts

Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.74). Elo agrees (+86 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
58.8%
+ Season record + form
62.8% +4.0pp
Calibration offset
58.4% -4.4pp
Platt rescale
48.8% -9.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
56.4% +7.6pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
29
W - L
12 - 17
Win rate
41%
Avg CLV
+2.6pt
ROI
+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.