Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · July 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.1pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Houston Astros
Model
48%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.3%
—
+ Season record + form
53.7%
+2.4pp
Calibration offset
52.3%
-1.4pp
Platt rescale
42.9%
-9.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.1%
+5.2pp
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