Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds Recap
MLB · July 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Cleveland Guardians WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 43% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.5pp · closed at 2.44 (41.0%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.