Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · July 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.8pp · closed at 2.28 (43.9%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.1%
—
+ Season record + form
48.4%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.8%
+0.4pp
Platt rescale
40.0%
-8.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.9%
+3.9pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.