Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · July 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 48% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp · closed at 2.08 (48.1%)

Small Play Dog play

St. Louis Cardinals

Model 48%

Market 49%

Edge +2.7 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.6% —

+ Season record + form

48.7% -1.9pp

Platt rescale

40.1% -8.6pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.8% +1.7pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.9% +6.1pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

6 - 7

Win rate

46%

Avg CLV

+5.0pt

ROI

+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.