Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · July 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.5pp · closed at 2.15 (46.5%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
48%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.1%
—
+ Season record + form
48.4%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.9%
+0.5pp
Platt rescale
40.1%
-8.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.5%
+1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.1%
+6.6pp
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