Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · July 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Atlanta Braves LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp · closed at 2.00 (50.0%)

Small Play

Atlanta Braves

Model 51%

Market 52%

Edge +3.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

56.3% —

+ Season record + form

59.9% +3.6pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

59.4% -0.5pp

Calibration offset

56.3% -3.1pp

Platt rescale

47.0% -9.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.1% -0.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

50.7% +4.6pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

6 - 9

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+3.8pt

ROI

-23.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.