Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · July 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.5pp · closed at 2.67 (37.5%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
38%
Market
39%
Edge
+5.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.0%
—
Calibration offset
45.3%
+2.3pp
Platt rescale
37.0%
-8.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.5%
-1.5pp
Final model probability
38.2%
+2.7pp
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