Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · July 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 43% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -3.0pp · closed at 1.85 (54.0%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
43%
Market
45%
Edge
+6.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
56.6%
—
Calibration offset
53.8%
-2.8pp
Platt rescale
43.7%
-10.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.3%
-2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.5%
+2.2pp
Final model probability
43.5%
-0.1pp
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