Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · July 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.2pp · closed at 2.37 (42.2%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+6.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.7%
—
+ Season record + form
46.7%
+1.0pp
Calibration offset
47.7%
+1.0pp
Platt rescale
38.6%
-9.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.9%
+3.3pp
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