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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · July 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 43% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp  ·  closed at 2.21 (45.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Athletics
+126 on FanDuel
Model 43%
Market 44%
Edge +4.6 pts

Solid 4.6% edge at FanDuel (2.26).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
48.7%
+ Season record + form
50.4% +1.7pp
Platt rescale
42.7% -7.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.0% -1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.5% +2.5pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
53
W - L
18 - 35
Win rate
34%
Avg CLV
+5.8pt
ROI
-13.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.