Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · July 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Boston Red Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 34% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp · closed at 2.66 (37.6%)
Boston Red Sox
+178 on FanDuel
Model
34%
Market
36%
Edge
+4.7 pts
Solid 4.7% edge at FanDuel (2.78).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
33.7%
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