San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves Recap
MLB · July 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 31% against FanDuel's implied 32% — an edge of +6.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.1pp · closed at 3.15 (31.8%)
San Diego Padres
Model
31%
Market
32%
Edge
+6.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
37.7%
—
+ Season record + form
36.7%
-1.0pp
Calibration offset
40.3%
+3.6pp
Platt rescale
35.3%
-5.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
31.5%
-3.8pp
Final model probability
31.3%
-0.2pp
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