San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · July 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.19 (45.7%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
54.6%
—
+ Season record + form
53.7%
-0.9pp
Calibration offset
52.4%
-1.3pp
Platt rescale
44.6%
-7.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.6%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.7%
+4.1pp
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