Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · July 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.7pp · closed at 1.88 (53.2%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
51%
Market
52%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
58.6%
—
Calibration offset
55.9%
-2.7pp
Platt rescale
49.0%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.0%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.3%
+4.3pp
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